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Climate-induced Vegetation Change: Past and Future
The terrestrial biosphere is a key part of the global climate system, as well as an integral part of sustainable economy and quality of life. A complete understanding of ecological processes requires the study of vegetation change over centuries and millennia. Jonathan Overpeck got his start in paleoecology with undergraduate studies in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. This research quickly expanded to local to sub-continental climate and vegetation change in eastern North America, and now has a global perspective that includes southwestern North America, the U.S. High Plains, the Tibetan Plateau, tropical Africa and northern South America. Work includes collection and use of paleoecological data such as pollen and macrofossils, as well as the use of dynamic vegetation and biogeochemical models. In most cases the goal is to study past change in order to refine our understanding of how environmental conditions such as vegetation will change in the future. Recent work includes a number of review and synthesis papers including a chapter in the IGBP PAGES Synthesis volume. Staff and students of the laboratory also apply paleoecological perspectives to the conservation of biodiversity. One major lesson from the past is that humans are likely poised to cause the sixth major mass extinction in earth history unless dramatic efforts are soon taken to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. The addition of Jeremy Weiss to the laboratory staff has strengthened our knowledge of climate and ecosystem interactions. He is heading our studies of these relationships in southwestern North America with particular attention to the influences of the North American monsoon, northeastern Pacific Ocean tropical storms, and freezing temperatures in the Sonoran Desert region.
Asian
Monsoon Dynamics
K. Anderson, A. Drake, B. Huntley, S. Jackson, M. Kerwin, K. Liu, S. Moran, D. Peters, M. Rinaldi, R. Webb, T. Webb III, J. Weiss, C. Whitlock
Overpeck, J.T., M. Strum, J.A. Francis, D.K. Perovich, M.C. Serreze, and 18 others. 2005. Arctic system on trajectory to new state. EOS (submitted).
Weiss, J.L. and J.T. Overpeck. 2005. Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool? Global Change Biology 11: 2065-2077. Overpeck, J., J. Cole, and P. Bartlein. 2005. A "paleoperspective" on climate variability and change. In: Climate Change and Biodiversity, T. Lovejoy and L. Hannah, eds., Yale University Press, pp. 91-108.
Kerwin, M.W., J.T. Overpeck, R.S. Webb, and K.H. Anderson. 2004. Pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions for the eastern Canadian boreal forest, subarctic, and Arctic. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 1901-1924. Overpeck, J.T., C. Whitlock, and B. Huntley. 2003. Terrestrial biosphere dynamics in the climate system: past and future. In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future (IGBP Synthesis Volume), K. Alverson, R. Bradley, and T. Pedersen, eds., Springer-Verglag, Berlin, pp. 81-111.
Jackson, S.T. and J.T. Overpeck. 2000. Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary. In: Deep Time: Paleobiology's Perspective, D.H. Erwin and S.L. Wing, eds., Paleobiology 26 (Supplement No. 4): 194-220. Jackson, S.T., R.S. Webb, K.H. Anderson, J.T. Overpeck, T. Webb, J. Williams, and B.C.S. Hansen. 2000. Vegetation and environment in eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 489-508. Jackson, S.T., J.T. Overpeck, T. Webb, S.E. Keattch, and K.H. Anderson. 1997. Mapped plant macrofossil and pollen records of late Quaternary vegetation change in eastern North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 16: 1-70. Melillo, J.M. and 33 others. 1996. Terrestrial biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate. In: Climate Change 1995 (IPCC Assessment), J.T. Houghton et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, pp. 445-481.
Overpeck, J.T. 1993. The past as a key indicator for assessing future climate-induced ecologic change. In: Ecological Indicators, McKensie, ed., Elsevier, Essex, England, pp. 1089-1096.
Overpeck, J.T. 1993. The role and response of continental vegetation in the global climate system. In: Global Changes in the Perspective of the Past, J.A. Eddy and H. Oeschger, eds., J. Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 221-238. Webb, R.S. and J.T. Overpeck. 1993. Carbon reserves released? Nature 361: 497-498.
Overpeck, J.T., R.S. Webb, and T. Webb. 1992. Mapping eastern North American vegetation change over the past 18,000 years: no-analogs and the future. Geology 20: 1071-1074. Overpeck, J.T., P.J. Bartlein, and T. Webb. 1991. Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: comparisons with the past. Science 254: 692-695. Overpeck, J.T. and P.J. Bartlein. 1989. Assessing the response of vegetation to future climate change: ecological response surfaces and paleoecological model validation. In: The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, J.B. Smith and D.A. Tirpak, eds., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C., EPA-230-05-89-50/60.
Overpeck, J.T. 1987. Pollen time series and Holocene climate variability of the Midwest United States. In: Abrupt Climatic Change - Evidence and Implications, W.H. Berger and L.D. Labeyrie, eds., D. Reidel Publishing Co., Holland, pp. 137-143. Clark, J.S., J.T. Overpeck, T. Webb III, and W. Patterson III. 1986. Pollen stratigraphic correlation and dating of barrier-beach peat sections. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 47: 145-168. Overpeck, J.T. 1985. A pollen study of a late Quaternary peat bog: south-central Adirondack Mountains, New York. Geological Society of America Bulletin 96:145-154. Overpeck, J.T., T. Webb III, and I.C. Prentice. 1985. Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs. Quaternary Research 23: 87-108. |
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Studies Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona Last updated
January 6, 2006
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