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Climate Sensitivity
Although
there is scientific agreement (e.g., IPCC and the U.S. National Academy
of Science) that humans are causing significant climate change (“global
warming”), there is still considerable debate regarding how much
and fast the earth will warm, as well as how other aspects of the climate
system will change. Ultimately, there are two ways to determine which
model prediction is correct: wait 50 to 100 years, or turn to the paleoclimate
record of change and see which models simulate the correct response
(“sensitivity”) to a given amount of climate forcing. Our
work in this area focuses on examining the sensitivity of the climate
system over a) the last 1000 years; b) the last glacial cycle; and
c) the last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5e). The hope is that
this multi-faceted approach will help reduce the uncertainty with regard
to how much the earth will warm in the future, and what this means
for precipitation change, sea level rise, and other environmental conditions. Related Research Focus Links This topic relates to all other research foci (back to main research page). B. Otto-Bleisner, R. Webb, see also other research foci and references
Kerwin, M.W., J.T. Overpeck, R.S. Webb, and K.H. Anderson. 2004. Pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions for the eastern Canadian boreal forest, subarctic, and Arctic. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 1901-1924. Robertson, A.D., J.T. Overpeck, D. Rind, E. Mosley-Thompson, G.A. Zielinski, J.L. Lean, D. Koch, J.E. Penner, I. Tegen, and R. Healy. 2001. Hypothesized climate forcing time series for the last 500 years. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 106: 14783-14803. Overpeck, J.T. 2000. The hole record. Nature 403: 714-715.
Kerwin, M., J.T. Overpeck, R.S. Webb, A. DeVernal, D.H. Rind, and R.J. Healy. 1999. The role of oceanic forcing in mid-Holocene Northern Hemisphere climatic change. Paleoceanography 14: 200-210. Melillo, J.M and 33 others. 1996. Terrestrial biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate. In: Climate Change 1995 (IPCC Assessment), J.T. Houghton et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, pp. 445-481.
Overpeck, J.T. 1993. The role and response of continental vegetation in the global climate system. In: Global Changes in the Perspective of the Past, J.A. Eddy and H. Oeschger, eds., J. Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 221-238. Peltier, W.R. C.A. Burga, J.-C. Duplessy, K. Herterich, I. Levin, E. Maier-Reimer, M. McElroy, J.T. Overpeck, D. Raynaud, and U. Siegenthaler. 1993. How can we use paleodata for evaluating the internal variability and feedbacks in the climate system? In: Global Changes in the Perspective of the Past, J.A. Eddy and H. Oeschger, eds., J. Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 239-262.
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Studies Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona Last updated
October 4, 2004
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