Department of Geosciences Environmental Studies Laboratory : Publications

 
Abrupt Climate Change

Alley, R.B., J. Marotzke, W.D. Nordhaus, J.T. Overpeck, D.M. Peteet, R.A. Pielke, R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.B. Rhines, T.F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J.M. Wallace

2003 Science 299: 2005-2010



ABSTRACT

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

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Environmental Studies Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona
All contents © 2003 Arizona Board of Regents
Send comments or questions to Jeremy Weiss, jlweiss@email.arizona.edu

Earth image retreived from http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/ on 14 January 2003

Last updated August 11, 2003
Document located at http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/publications/abstracts/alley_et_al&abrupt&2003.htm

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