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GEO
596C– Current
Methods and Debates in Paleoclimatology
2003 Fall Semester, The University of Arizona
Fridays
from 1pm to 3pm in Gould-Simpson 211
(and occasionally Tuesdays from 2pm to 4pm in
Gould-Simpson 213)
Prof. Julia Cole
Prof. Jonathan Overpeck
Class Schedule
Paleoclimatic observations and analyses are increasingly being called
upon to address issues of substantial societal importance. In particular
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) process has increasingly
focused on paleoenvironmental science in each of its
climate assessment
reports over the last two decades. The goal of this seminar will be to
identify and study the paleoclimatic issues that will likely be central
to the next IPCC assessment report.
Using a
combination of faculty lectures, guest lectures, and student
presentations, the seminar will start with developing
an outline of paleoclimatic issues central to assessing future climate
change, and proceed to cover the outline topics of greatest interest.
Likely topics may include:
• critical
examination of important methods and proxies, including the
development of a critical interpretation guide for each proxy, for
example, assessment of temporal and interpretational uncertainties
and biases.
• assessment
of regional, hemispheric, and global climate change over the
last 2000 years, including what we know about the Little Ice
Age and prior warm periods such as the so-called Medieval Warm
Period, as well as the forcing and mechanisms of past change.
• assessment
of climate sensitivity and the extent to which paleoclimate science
can constrain the likely magnitude of future change.
• assessment
of how well paleoclimatic data and research can be used
to evaluate the realism of global and regional climate models.
Which types of model results can be most and least trusted?
• assessment
of what we know about abrupt climate change in topics such
as ocean circulation, drought regimes, flood regimes, tropical storm
regimes, as well as sea level, and what it means for the future.
In particular, is it likely that the probability of abrupt change
goes
up with the rate
of climate forcing and/or change (NRC,
2002)?
The goal
of the seminar will be to identify crucial future research needs,
as well as the current state of the art. Focus will be on the
late Quaternary, and mostly on the use of recent scientific
literature. We will weigh in on the most contentious current debates
that involve
paleoclimatic dimensions. Class will meet two hours per week.
Grades will be determined on the basis of participation in discussion
(50%)
and quality of presentations (50%). Each student will give
one or two presentations depending on credit sought (1 or 2 credits)
and number
of students enrolled. Auditing is permitted if space allows,
and such students are expected to participate in discussions and
presentations.
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Mailing
Address
1040 E. Fourth St.
Department of Geosciences
University of Arizona
Gould-Simpson Room 208
Tucson, AZ 85721-0077
Telephone
Number
1.520.621.8025
Facsimile
Number
1.520.621.2672
Comparing Temperature
Proxies (from Mann
et al., 2003)
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